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Google + Estimated To Have Ten Million Users By Tomorrow

Posted on 13. Jul, 2011 by Nicholas Greene in News

I’m sure we all know that Google’s new social networking venture had been experiencing some rather explosive growth lately, but this….this is really something else. According to an analysis conducted today by Paul Allen of Ancestry.com, Google +’s userbase is slated to hit the ten million mark by tomorrow.  What’s more, he expects that number to double by the weekend. While that doesn’t really scratch Facebook’s userbase- which is well over two hundred million- it’s still pretty damned significant, particularly since the service is technically still in beta with restricted invites. One thing’s for sure, if Google +’s exponential growth continues as it evidently has, well…let’s just say we’ll be able to see the sweat on Facebook’s brow.

The Survey

Now, I’m not trying to deny that Google + is popular as all hell. Nor am I trying to downplay the service. Quite the contrary, I love it. It’s just that ten million users in a week and a half seems a bit high, wouldn’t you say?  Let’s take a look at how Mr. Allen came to his conclusion- that should clear this up, one way or the other. According to the study Allen posted on Google +;

My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates…my project is like that – a low-budget sampling. I have randomly selected 100 uncommon U.S. surnames and I am tracking the number of Google+ users with those names – updating my counts every 2-3 days. I am assuming that the growth in G+ users with those surnames is similar to the growth in G+ users with the other 150,000 or so surnames in the U.S. If I had resources to include 500 or 1,000 surnames in my sample, then I believe my model would be more accurate.

Final Thoughts- The Results

So…basically, he conducted a low-budget Google + census. Now, I’m no statistician, but his method seems pretty sound to me. Granted, it’s not going to be one hundred percent accurate- nor did he claim perfect accuracy- but the way he estimated the number of users on Google + is basically identical to the method by which a lot of studies and surveys find their results- random samplings; since it would be damn near impossible to interview or examine every single individual. Even if such a thing were possible, it would likely take such a long time that the data would no longer be valid or current by the time the study was completed.

Hopefully Google releases official usage statistics soon- though we’re probably going to have to wait until the official launch for that one. I suspect that by the time Google does release their own set of statistics, the number of G + users will have expanded to well beyond ten million.

via Venturebeat

Update: Uh, Wow. So apparently Paul was pretty much right on the mark. His estimates have been confirmed by Google CEO Larry Page. Nice.

Tags: Google